Many political experts believe that current relations between Russia and western countries can be described as the start of the new cold war. It is obvious that there are many similar features of the end of WWII and of current situation in the world.
Still there is great difference between the methods of Soviet Union and modern Russia. The latter makes accent not on the military instruments, but on diplomatic, economical and information ones. We can describe such war as “hybrid” one.
We have to mention about intellectual potential of Russian intelligence services, which are “forward unites” of Russian political elite. They scrutinize closely the opponent side with a view of preparing complex operations on the tactical and strategic levels to make a breach in the enemy’s defense. It is worth admitting that the West was not ready for such challenge and it had a meaningful effect.
It is clear that EU, an interstate union based on similar principles of values, is the primary antagonist for Russia. Today, EU faces many challenges related to the difference of economic growth, social and ethnical structure of its members. These problems grow up because of some impartial reasons. Russian analytics know it and look for a way to increase the disunity of European institutes. Looking for sensible spot within EU, for those members, which are not satisfied with their role in this union, is the first aim for Russian intelligence services and diplomats.
Hungary is one of such a sensible spot of EU and it faces great influence of Russia. The modern Hungarian history has many preconditions for that. After the end of WWI, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was defeated and the Treaty of Trianon was signed. Hungary lost 2/3 of its territory and almost 3 million of population, its industry was also harmed. The review of this Treaty gave Hungary the opportunity to return a part of its territories, but not for a long. And since the end of WWII Hungarian borders have been determined by the Treaty of Trianon.
Many generations of Hungarian people have not accepted such drastic changes, treating it as national humiliation. It provokes the wish for revanche. In that context, we have to remember the union of Miklos Horthy and Adolf Hitler. Unfortunately, idea of recollection of Hungarian territories was based on the principle “the end justifies the means”. Aristocrat Horthy supported Hitler as he promised to return indigenous lands of Hungary and seacoast that very important for Admiral Horthy. Today we can see the same situation – Russia supports Hungarian Nazi movement called Jobbik.
The idea to protect ‘oppressed’ Hungarians living abroad is very popular among the Hungarian people, and Victor Orban, the leader of moderate right-wing political party Fidesz, is trying to use this tool to gain popularity among the voters.
Hungary has claims on the territories of Ukraine, Croatia, Romania, but only Ukrainian central and local governments treat Hungarian minority well, defend their rights etc. Hungarian kindergartens and schools, dozens of Hungarian newspapers and magazines, Hungarian University in Beregove city, called Beregszasz by Hungarians – they are permitted by Ukrainian government. There is Hungarian department in Zakarpattian University of Uzhhorod city, called ‘Ungvar’ by Hungarians and it also never caused any problems for Hungarian minority. Zakarpattia region is the perfect example of peaceful residence of Ukrainians, Hungarians, Slovaks, Czechs and many others.
But political competition has other rules of the game. We hardly can state that Mr. Orban is Putin’s ally. There is rather temporary concurrence of Orban’s and Putin’s positions.
The first concurrence is Orban’s attempt to resist the immigration policy of European Union. However, Hungarian immigration policy has double standards, as at the time of anti-immigration campaign Hungarian government accepted the arrival of 2300 foreigners (1300 in 2017).
The second concurrence is economic partnership of Hungary and Russia, especially in the area of energy production, e.g. Russia issued credit to finance the building of nuclear station in Paks.
Another concurrence of Orban’s and Putin’s plans is the support of Hungarians abroad. Several years ago, Orban’s position was quite constructive and it was aimed to support the education programs, medical programs for Hungarian communities abroad. Now the elections are coming and it is extremely important for Orban’s political party to gain votes of Hungarian citizens living abroad. That is why official Budapest has almost ruined the relations with Ukraine, Romania and other countries, which have large Hungarian communities. At the same time Mr. Orban does not want to be treated as Putin’s friend, because their partnership is interim one.
Soon after the parliamentary elections, the compromise with Ukraine will be reached. After the nuclear station will be brought into service, the partnership of Orban and Putin will be finished.